| What is taxed or charged, in Billions of $ | To Ottawa | To Edmonton | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taxed by both governments | |||
| Personal income | 34.0 | 15.9 | 49.9 |
| Corporate profit | 14.1 | 7.3 | 21.4 |
| Fuel, tobacco, alcohol and cannabis | 1.9 | 2.1 | 4.0 |
| Taxed only by Ottawa | |||
| Consumption - the Goods and Services Tax (GST) | 6.2 | none | 6.2 |
| Employment Insurance premiums | 3.7 | none | 3.7 |
| Other federal revenue | 7.0 | none | 7.0 |
| Other federal fees and charges | 1.4 | none | 1.4 |
| Taxed only by Alberta | |||
| Property - the education portion | none | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| Insurance, tourism and other taxes | none | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Provincial fees, premiums and licences | none | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| TOTAL TAXATION AND FEES | 68.3 | 36.5 | 104.8 |
| Held separately - deferred pay, not government revenue | |||
| Canada Pension Plan contributions | 11.4 | none | 11.4 |
| TOTAL PAID BY ALBERTANS | 79.7 | 36.5 | 116.2 |
| Per Albertan | $15,760 | $7,220 | $22,980 |
Federal figures are 2024 [SC-450]; Alberta figures are Budget 2026-27 [AB-B26]. Population is 5,057,077 at 1 April 2026 [SC-009]. The C$11.4 billion Canada Pension Plan contribution figure is derived and is kept outside tax revenue.
The important line is the Total Taxation and Fees of C$104.8 billion as the Canada Pension Plan contributions are deferred pay for retirement and are not part of government revenue.
Alberta also has revenue that does not come directly from household taxes
- C$13.2 billion in oil, gas and mineral royalties.
- C$4.4 billion in investment income, chiefly the Heritage Fund and endowments.
- C$2.6 billion from provincial businesses, including gaming, liquor, cannabis and ATB Financial.
- C$4.2 billion in institutional and other revenue. Together those sources add about C$24.4 billion [AB-B26]. This is also the most volatile part of the budget. Budget 2026-27 assumed West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil at 60.50 United States dollars per barrel; the first-quarter update used 73.50 United States dollars and lifted resource revenue materially [AB-Q1].
Why the federal number is a range
Canada does not publish a single directly measured account of all federal revenues attributable to each province. The Canada Revenue Agency publishes net federal personal income tax by province and Statistics Canada publishes provincial allocations of federal revenue and expenditure, but those are allocated estimates rather than a cash ledger of every federal dollar collected in Alberta. This paper therefore uses two fuller estimates: about C$68 billion at the conservative end and C$77 billion at the upper end. A third method, simply treating Albertans as average Canadians, gives an even lower floor of C$59.7 billion.
Appendix G explains all three.
A fourth estimate comes from the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy, which puts Alberta’s current fiscal gap with Ottawa at C$14.0 billion a year. On federal spending in Alberta of roughly C$57 billion that implies federal revenue of about C$71 billion, inside the range used here. That work was commissioned by the Government of Alberta and reaches its figure from the spending side rather than the tax side, so it is corroboration rather than a shared assumption [SPP-26].
How this paper differs from the School of Public Policy analysis
The School of Public Policy report published in September 2026 is the main official counter-study and deserves a direct answer rather than silence. It starts from a gross fiscal gap of about C$14.0 billion a year, then allocates federal spending made outside Alberta that still benefits Albertans, which reduces the gap to roughly C$2.3 billion. Separately it estimates about C$11.7 billion to replicate the federal programmes Alberta would have to run for itself, together with further ongoing costs.
This paper does not claim the gap as a surplus, and the difference between the two headline numbers is mostly a difference of order rather than of substance. The ledger here keeps the federal revenue attributable to Alberta and then pays for replacement explicitly: a C$13.0 billion federal-replacement line in Table 3, plus C$8.8 to C$10.0 billion of sovereign-function allowances for defence, Indigenous programme continuity, veterans, immigration and land. That is the same category of adjustment the School of Public Policy applies when it nets replication cost against the gap. What is left after those deductions is the C$22.2 to C$32.1 billion balance, not the C$14.0 billion gap.
Two genuine differences remain, and neither is resolved by arithmetic. The School of Public Policy models a transition in which Alberta’s economy is smaller for several years than it would otherwise have been, and its headline transition range is accordingly much larger than the C$4.96 billion of government set-up costed here — the two are measuring different things, one an economic path and the other a public administration bill. And the allocation of federal spending outside Alberta that benefits Albertans is a judgement on which reasonable analysts differ. Readers weighing the two should compare the treatment of replacement cost line by line rather than the headline figures.
