Appendix Table B1 - Material assumptions
| Assumption | Working value | Treatment in this paper |
|---|---|---|
| Federal revenue from Alberta | C$68-77B | Two fuller methods define the range. A population-average C$59.7B estimate is shown separately as a floor. Appendix G. |
| Provincial fiscal baseline | Budget 2026-27 | Retained because it is less favourable than the later first-quarter update. The upside is disclosed and excluded — Appendix C. |
| Alberta Pension Plan funding | C$167B planning transfer at 4.0% real; ~C$18.1B annual pension income | All federal retirement-income obligations assumed by Alberta are paid inside the Alberta Pension Plan. Contributions and investment income never enter general revenue, and pension payments do not draw on general revenue. Long-run viability against the ageing population is tested in Section 6. |
| Transition price base | Fiscal 2026-27 | C$4.96B one-time transition envelope [BA]. |
| Immigration permanent-resident stock | ~190,000 | Planning estimate derived from cumulative admissions. The model uses a range rather than pretending the stock is known precisely. |
| Immigration reassessment refusal range | 1,650-3,180 a year | A planning range after family/employment grandfathering. Refusal is kept separate from enforced removal. Appendix D. |
| Enforced removals | 800-2,000 a year | Capacity-constrained against Canada Border Services Agency experience; direct unit cost benchmark about C$4,700 blended before detention and legal costs. Appendix D. |
| Indigenous programme continuity | C$3.1-3.8B a year | Current federal programme funding is continued as the Day 1 fiscal basis. No treaty settlement formula is assumed. |
| Additional Indigenous stress | C$1.5-2.8B a year | A sensitivity equal to a substantial increase above continuation funding, not a legal-liability estimate or a settlement proposal — Appendix C. |
| Defence operating benchmark | ~1.05% of GDP; ~C$5.0B mature | A posture-based costing derived from the capability Alberta’s neighbours would require, not an alliance target. Transition setup of C$58.2M is already inside the C$4.96B transition envelope. |
| Defence initial capitalisation | C$10.0-16.5B over 10-15 years | Indicative build-out averaging C$0.7 to C$1.6 billion a year, against the C$0.9 to C$1.1 billion a year the mature budget already carries — Appendix C and Appendix E. |
| Land and environment extra allowance | C$0.2-0.5B a year | Conservative incremental sovereign allowance; no carbon revenue is assumed. |
| Federal debt settlement | Unknown | Assets and liabilities are negotiated together. Sensitivities at C$0, C$3.1B and C$6.2B of annual service are shown in Section 10. An output-weighted allocation is not treated as a defensible planning basis. |
| Currency and liquidity | No fiscal gain assumed | No final currency choice is required by this paper; any regime must provide payment continuity, adequate reserves and access to liquidity — Appendix C. |
| Long-term spending growth | Population-based central case | Sensitivity is shown for population growth, population plus 0.5%, and spending growth with the economy. |
