The rule used, and why
The base case is simple: assume current federal programme funding continues until the nations concerned agree to something else.
Indigenous Services Canada’s planned programme spending and Alberta’s share of registered populations imply roughly C$3.1 to C$3.8 billion a year [ISC-26][IR-24]. That figure is a population-share budgeting proxy for continuity funding, not a measurement of federal expenditure actually made in Alberta, which Canada does not publish on that basis. It is also Indigenous Services Canada programme spending only; Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada and other departments also spend in Alberta, so the continuation base may be understated. The full range is included in the annual sovereign-function allowance, and the separate C$1.5 to C$2.8 billion stress tests a settlement above continuation.
| Driver | Alberta | Canada | Share | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Registrants under the Indian Act | 143,241 | 1,116,320 | 12.8% | C$3.09B |
| Registrants on reserve or Crown land | 83,676 | 531,235 | 15.8% | C$3.81B |
Alberta has 48 First Nations, 138 reserves and eight Métis Settlements [AB-FN]. These estimates are a budgeting basis, not a statement about entitlement or the proper final level of funding.
Continuation is the cautious base case: it keeps current funding in place, requires no nation to accept a new arrangement and does not build the fiscal case on a cut.
Negotiated arrangements come later
The transition can fund readiness, but it cannot decide the outcome or the timetable of negotiations.
The transition model therefore carries C$23.2 million a year of added administration and C$278.3 million once for negotiation capacity, records custody and payment administration. Any new agreement would be reached with the nation concerned and on its own timetable.
What a richer settlement would cost
The stress test in Section 4 adds a further C$1.5 to C$2.8 billion a year above continuation to show that the fiscal case survives a substantially more expensive negotiated outcome.
That amount is a fiscal sensitivity, not an estimate of treaty liability, an offer or a settlement formula.
What remains unresolved
Constitutional and treaty counsel would be required before implementation. Questions about treaty continuity, live litigation and the timing of consultation remain outside this fiscal paper.
