Can Alberta Afford Independence? A fiscal capacity assessment and projection for an independent Alberta
Sixteen chapters across five parts, eleven appendices and a closing statement. Every section is published here as a web page you can read, cite and share, and the complete document is available as a PDF.
A companion to the Alberta Transition Plan.
Strip away the politics of independence and a practical question remains. If Alberta kept the taxes its people and businesses already pay to Ottawa, and paid in return for everything Ottawa now does for Albertans — pensions, defence, borders, courts, immigration, all of it — could Alberta afford to run itself?
Not whether it should. Whether it could, and with how much room to spare. Every figure here describes a normal year once the transition to independence is complete, in today’s dollars, measured against the Government of Alberta’s 2026-27 budget.
The answer is yes, and not narrowly. After paying for every service Albertans receive today and every federal function that would become Alberta’s, between C$22.2 billion and C$32.1 billion is left over each year — that equates to every Albertan being better off by C$4,390 to C$6,350, every year.
Continue reading the Executive SummaryEverything in this part is based on revenue Albertans already generate.
Independence changes who sends the bill and who signs the cheque. It does not mean rebuilding the hospitals, schools and courts Alberta already runs.
Once the books balance, the argument changes character. What follows are choices, not necessities.
Everything so far rests on today's numbers. What follows asks what could happen over twenty years — not what will.
Technical detail, sources and assumptions supporting the main narrative.
Can Alberta Afford Independence? A fiscal capacity assessment and projection for an independent Alberta
The Transition Plan sets out what has to be done. Forward to Freedom shows Alberta can pay for it. The Budget and Costing Report puts a number on every domain.
A Practical Analysis of Alberta’s Transition from Province to Independent Country
The legal, institutional and operational requirements for an independent Alberta. Twenty-eight chapters across seven parts.
The fully costed budget for the transition, domain by domain
Twenty budget statements, one for each domain a sovereign Alberta must run, with the assumptions and sources behind every figure.