Federal revenue, expenditure and the net position
[LoP-26] Library of Parliament, Distribution of Federal Revenues and Expenditures by Province, publication 2026-01-E, 2 March 2026. Source for the national-average federal-revenue floor, Alberta's net contribution, attributed federal debt interest and Alberta's per-capita net contribution.
[SC-450] Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0450-01, Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - general governments, provincial and territorial economic accounts.
[FI-26] Fraser Institute, Illustrating Albertans' Contribution to the Rest of Canada, Hill and Li, 16 June 2026.
[FI-CPP] Fraser Institute, Understanding Alberta's Role in National Programs, Including the Canada Pension Plan.
[FC-MT] Department of Finance Canada, Major federal transfers, provincial and territorial table, 2025-26 and 2026-27.
Alberta provincial finances
[AB-B26] Government of Alberta, 2026-29 Fiscal Plan, Budget 2026, tabled 26 February 2026.
[AB-POP] Government of Alberta, Treasury Board and Finance, Population Projections: Alberta and Local Geographic Areas, 2026-2051. Source for the number of Albertans aged 65 and over used in the pension viability test at Section 6.
[AB-Q1] Government of Alberta, 2026-27 First Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement, 27 August 2026.
[AB-PIT] Government of Alberta, personal income tax rates and brackets, 2026.
[AB-CIT] Government of Alberta, corporate tax rates.
[CRA-CIT] Canada Revenue Agency, corporation tax rates.
[SC-009] Statistics Canada, Table 17-10-0009-01, quarterly population estimates.
Transition costing
[BA] Transition budget accounts workbook, fiscal 2026-27 price base. Source for the domain ledger, replacement costs, payout estimates and one-time transition cost. These are ATC working estimates and cannot be audited from public sources unless the Budget and Costing Report is published alongside this paper. [BoE] Twenty Budget Statements, one per transition domain, derived from the Alberta Transition Plan's supporting analysis, which is the source analysis and material for the transition side.
[TB] Transition briefing note covering calendar, phasing, records dependencies and disclosed exposures.
Pensions
[CPPI-26] CPP Investments, the investment manager for the Canada Pension Plan, results for the fiscal year ended 31 March 2026.
[LW-23] LifeWorks, Alberta Pension Plan - Analysis of Costs, Benefits, Risks and Considerations, 2023.
[LAPP-25][PSPP-25][ATRF-25][MEPP-24][SFPP-24] Annual reports of Alberta public-sector pension plans.
Indigenous
[ISC-26] Indigenous Services Canada, 2026-27 Departmental Plan.
[IR-24] Indigenous Services Canada, Population Registered under the Indian Act, 31 December 2024.
[AB-FN] Government of Alberta, First Nations and Métis Settlements listings.
[TBS-22] Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat, Canada's Cost-Benefit Analysis Guide for Regulatory Proposals, 2022.
Immigration and policing
[SC-121] Statistics Canada, Table 17-10-0121-01, Non-permanent residents by type, quarterly.
[SC-040] Statistics Canada, Table 17-10-0040-01, Components of population growth, quarterly.
[SC-020] Statistics Canada, Table 17-10-0020-01, Interprovincial migration, quarterly.
[IRCC-LP] Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan and supplementary information.
[IRCC-TFW] Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, work-permit holders by programme, January 2026. [IRCC-PR] Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, open data, Permanent Residents by Province and Immigration Category.
[AAIP-26] Government of Alberta, Alberta Advantage Immigration Program allocation, 2026.
[CBSA-26] Canada Border Services Agency, immigration removal statistics, updated 24 July 2026.
[SOR-284] Regulatory Impact Analysis Statement to Statutory Orders and Regulations (SOR) 2024-284, Canada Gazette. [SC-ICCS] Statistics Canada, Integrated Criminal Court Survey, 2023/24.
[UK-EUSS] United Kingdom Home Office, European Union Settlement Scheme statistics to 31 March 2026.
[UK-WIND] House of Commons Library material on the Windrush response and compensation scheme.
[PwC-21] PricewaterhouseCoopers, Alberta provincial police service costing study, 2021.
[IRCC-FAM] Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, family sponsorship guidance for spouses, partners and dependent children, 2026. Source for the genuine-relationship and admissibility concepts used in the family transition rule.
[IRCC-INAD] Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, Reasons you may be inadmissible to Canada, 2026. Comparator for security, criminality, human-rights, organized-crime, misrepresentation and other admissibility screening.
Energy and long-term modelling
[CER-26] Canada Energy Regulator, Canada's Energy Future 2026: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050.
[EIA-AEO26] United States Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2026.
[CAPP-26] Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, Understanding the Western Canadian Select-West Texas Intermediate Differential, 17 April 2026.
[AER-ST98] Alberta Energy Regulator, Alberta Energy Outlook ST98, 2025 edition.
[AER-ST3] Alberta Energy Regulator, ST3 statistical series, 2025 production.
[NBIM-26] Norges Bank Investment Management, 2025 annual and 2026 half-year reports.
[OECD-620] Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Johansson et al., Taxation and Economic Growth, Economics Department Working Paper No. 620.
[DJANKOV-10] Djankov et al., The Effect of Corporate Taxes on Investment and Entrepreneurship.
[MW-17] Moretti and Wilson, The Effect of State Taxes on the Geographical Location of Top Earners.
[SC-REG] Statistics Canada, Regulatory Accumulation, Business Dynamism and Economic Growth in Canada.
Defence, energy and international comparators
[NATO-CH] North Atlantic Treaty Organization, relations and Partnership for Peace material concerning Switzerland. Switzerland joined the Partnership for Peace in 1996; used as a structural cooperation comparator, not as a proposed treaty commitment.
[DND-F35] Government of Canada, Department of National Defence, Future Fighter Capability Project. Current project value C$27.7 billion for 88 F-35A fighters, associated equipment, training, sustainment setup and fighter facilities; used only to scale the fighter-capital range.
[VoF-25]The Value of Freedom, 2025.Used only in Appendix H to explain how the methodology and scope evolved. No current fiscal total depends on figures from that paper.
[IEA-25] International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2025, Table 2.3, page 109. Crude oil import price by scenario, constant 2024 US dollars at market exchange rates. Published 12 November 2025.
[EIA-25] United States Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2025, Table 1, Low Oil Price case, constant 2024 US dollars. The case was discontinued in the 2026 edition.
[AB-26] Government of Alberta, Budget 2026 Fiscal Plan 2026-29, Economic Outlook Tables, Scenarios; and Revenue Table 10, sensitivities to fiscal year assumptions.
[GoA-HFS] Government of Alberta, Historical Fiscal Summary, Annual Report 2024-25 and earlier editions. Non-renewable resource revenue by fiscal year.
[CPQ-82] Conseil du Patronat du Québec, study of head-office relocation released 31 March 1982, reporting twenty-eight major relocations and about 6,500 head-office jobs over 1979-82. An employers’ association tally rather than an official statistic.
[SC-VIN] Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch 11F0019 No. 177, A Tale of Three Cities: The Dynamics of Manufacturing in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, 1976-1997, Table 5. Manufacturing head offices.
[SC-110] Statistics Canada, Table 33-10-0110-01, Head offices and head office employment, 2024 reference year, released 2 February 2026. Note that the series was revised upward at 2022, so levels before and after that year are not directly comparable.
[SC-455] Statistics Canada, Table 98-10-0455-01, 2021 Census, occupation by industry and census metropolitan area. Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction in Alberta.
[SC-224] Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0224-01, Household sector current accounts, provincial and territorial. Primary household income, deflated by Alberta all-items consumer price index, Table 18-10-0005-01.
[SC-015] Statistics Canada, Table 17-10-0015-01, Components of interprovincial migration, annual. Net interprovincial migration for Alberta.
[GoA-FP] Government of Alberta, Forestry and Parks Annual Report 2024-25, Breakdown of Revenues. Timber royalties and fees are classified under premiums, fees and licences.
[SC-045] Statistics Canada, Table 17-10-0045-01, Interprovincial migrants by province of origin and destination, quarterly, and Table 17-10-0040-01. Vintage of 17 June 2026; earlier published figures for 2023 have since been revised down.
[CREA-26] Canadian Real Estate Association, MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark, July 2026.
[FI-TFD] Fraser Institute, Canadians Celebrate Tax Freedom Day on June 9, 2026, published 8 June 2026. Average family tax bill by province, and the balanced-budget measure.
[EY-26] Ernst and Young, Combined federal and provincial personal income tax rates, 2026, current to 15 January 2026.
[CRA-EMIG] Canada Revenue Agency, Leaving Canada (emigrants), and Income Tax Act section 128.1(4), deemed disposition on emigration.
[CUSMA-TN] Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, Chapter 16, Annex 16-A, Appendix 2, as implemented at 8 CFR 214.6; and United States Citizenship and Immigration Services Policy Manual, Volume 2, Part P, Chapter 2.
[KFF-25] KFF, 2025 Employer Health Benefits Survey. Average annual premium for employer-sponsored family coverage.
[WB-MIL] World Bank, World Development Indicators, series MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS, military expenditure as a percentage of gross domestic product, compiled from Stockholm International Peace Research Institute data. 2024 reference year; series updated 13 July 2026.
[FIN-FSP] Department of Finance Canada, Fiscal Stabilization Program. Programme description, the eligibility formula, the maximum payment of C$169 per person for 2020-21, and total payments to all provinces since the programme began in 1967. Page modified 15 September 2023.
[SC-222] Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0222-01, Gross domestic product, expenditure-based, provincial and territorial, annual. Source for Alberta nominal gross domestic product at market prices and for Alberta’s share of Canadian output.
[IMF-DM] International Monetary Fund, DataMapper, general government gross debt as a percentage of gross domestic product, series GGXWDG_NGDP. Used only to show the difference between the Fund’s general-government basis and Alberta’s provincial basis.
[SPP-26] University of Calgary, School of Public Policy, Potential Fiscal and Economic Impacts of Alberta Separation, September 2026. Commissioned by the Government of Alberta.
