| Shown in Billions of $ | Alberta today | Federal, retained or replaced | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE | |||
| Taxation and fees paid by Albertans (Table 2) | +36.5 | +68.3 to +77.0 | +104.8 to +113.5 |
| Resource royalties on oil, gas and minerals | +13.2 | - | +13.2 |
| Investment income, chiefly the Heritage Fund | +4.4 | - | +4.4 |
| Government business enterprises - gaming, liquor and cannabis, ATB Financial and others | +2.6 | - | +2.6 |
| Other revenue - institutional sales and donations, investment management charges and miscellaneous | +4.2 | - | +4.2 |
| TOTAL REVENUE | +60.8 | +68.3 to +77.0 | +129.1 to +137.8 |
| EXPENSE | |||
| Health | −26.8 | −0.1 | −26.9 |
| Education, kindergarten to grade 12 | −12.9 | - | −12.9 |
| Advanced education | −7.7 | - | −7.7 |
| Social services and payments to citizens | −14.3 | −9.1 | −23.4 |
| Justice, policing, border, defence, diplomacy, taxation, transport, agriculture, energy, regulation and all other ministries | −8.7 | −3.8 | −12.5 |
| Total operating expense | −70.4 | −13.0 | −83.4 |
| Capital grants and capital-plan expense | −3.7 | - | −3.7 |
| Amortisation and inventory consumption | −4.9 | - | −4.9 |
| Debt servicing on Alberta’s own debt | −3.4 | - | −3.4 |
| Contingency | −2.0 | - | −2.0 |
| Pension provision on Alberta's own plans, a credit | +0.4 | - | +0.4 |
| Federal retirement-income obligations - funded through the Alberta Pension Plan (Section 6) | - | 0 | 0 |
| TOTAL EXPENSE, RUNNING THE COUNTRY | -83.9 | -13.0 | -96.9 |
| SUBTOTAL - after replacing everything Canada does | +32.2 to +40.9 | ||
| ADDITIONAL SOVEREIGN-FUNCTION COSTING ALLOWANCE | |||
| A defence force sized to the posture described in Section 15, about 1.05 per cent of gross domestic product, over the transition establishment already carried in the Budget and Costing Report | −4.6 | ||
| Indigenous programme continuity allowance, continued at Canada's present level (Section 12) | −3.1 to −3.8 | ||
| Veterans' benefits - a successor arrangement | −0.7 | ||
| Immigration reassessment and removals (Section 14) | −0.2 to −0.4 | ||
| Additional land and environmental responsibilities (Section 13) | −0.2 to −0.5 | ||
| Total sovereign-function costing allowances | −8.8 to −10.0 | ||
| NET - LEFT OVER, EVERY YEAR | +22.2 to +32.1 |
Alberta figures: Budget 2026-27 [AB-B26]. The health line is the Ministry of Health operating expense; wider figures quoted publicly for “health investment” also fold in assisted living, mental health and capital that sit in other rows of the same budget. Federal replacement costs are ATC working estimates from the transition budget accounts [BA] rather than a published public source; the sovereign-function lines are costing assumptions used to avoid understating functions Alberta does not perform at provincial level, or obligations that may arise at sovereignty.
Resource royalties comprise bitumen royalty C$9,688.1M, crude oil royalty C$2,120.5M, natural gas and by-products royalty C$942.2M, bonuses and sales of Crown leases C$331.3M, and rentals, fees and coal royalty C$130.8M [AB-26]. Forestry is not in this line: timber royalties and fees, about C$97 million a year, are reported under premiums, fees and licences and are carried in the taxation and fees line above [GoA-FP].
Debt servicing is Alberta’s own and carries no federal element; federal debt is dealt with separately in Section 10. Of the C$3.4 billion, about C$0.6 billion services self-supported debt lent on to local authorities and the Agriculture Financial Services Corporation, and is recovered through the investment income line above [AB-26].
After replacing the federal functions Alberta would inherit, the ledger leaves roughly C$32 to C$41 billion a year.
The sovereign-function allowances then cover defence, Indigenous programme continuity, veterans, immigration and additional land and environmental responsibilities.
After those allowances, C$22.2 to C$32.1 billion remains.
Sections 12 to 15 set out what each one buys and how it was costed.
The vintage of these figures, and what it costs the case
Unless otherwise stated, provincial fiscal figures use Government of Alberta Budget 2026 estimates for 2026-27, tabled 26 February 2026. Demographic, federal, energy, pension and comparative figures use the sources identified in Appendix A.
The 2026-27 first-quarter update, which raised forecast resource revenue for that year by roughly C$9.7 billion, is shown only as excluded upside and is not carried into the headline case. Considering the variability of energy prices, this paper takes the most conservative approach to make its case.
